北京中桥翻译有限公司(Beijing Chinaebridge Translation Co., Ltd.)是经国家工商局注册正式登记成立的北京翻译公司。公司毗邻北京 CBD 商圈，荟萃了众多的翻译精英，在承接金融翻译业务方面拥有丰富的经验和雄厚的实力。公司自成立以来，始终坚持以专业翻译为核心，凭借先进的经营理念、严格的质量管理、优质的服务、强大的网络技术，近年来在翻译服务、本地化服务及教育等领域取得了长足发展，现已成为一家国内外知名的金融翻译服务提供商，博得海内外客户的好评与信赖。
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原文
Initially, we thought that the German-Italian fiscal tightening would cause a significant slowdown in Europe in the first half of this year. The facts show that we were wrong. Neither a super-strong euro, nor a 3-point VAT increase in the largest European market nor a 175bp monetary tightening have managed to derail the economy. As we have previously argued, the underlying strength of the economy is the main surprise coming from Europe. On our estimates, euro area GDP would have grown by 3.5% last year if the exchange rate, oil prices and interest rates had been constant. However, cyclical factors matter. In the coming months, a further slowdown in the US (not to mention a recession) and a less buoyant Chinese economy could weaken European export momentum. By themselves, we think that these would not be enough to threaten the recovery, since GDP growth is fuelled by domestic demand. companies’ expectations, on both profitability and demand, are highly sensitive to the state of the global economy. In a global downturn, they would be quick to cut investment projects. Hence, while our central case scenario is still a re-acceleration of growth in the second half of the year, risks might be tilted to the downside, contrary to what we thought only three months ago. It remains that, for the third time in a row, we are upgrading our GDP forecast for 2007.
译文
起初我们认为德意财政紧缩将导致今年上半年欧洲经济大范围减速。但事实证明我们错了。在欧洲这个最大的市场上，欧元的坚挺、增值税3个百分点的增长以及175个基点的货币紧缩都未能使经济出轨。正如我们之前所讨论的，经济潜力是欧洲最令人吃惊之处。据我们估计，如果汇率、石油价格和利率保持稳定，去年欧元区GDP将增长3.5%。然而，周期性作用因素发挥了作用。在接下来的几个月里，美国经济的进一步减速（算不上是衰退）以及中国经济的增长放缓将削弱欧洲的出口势头。我们认为这些将不足以威胁其经济复苏，因为国内需求为GDP的增长注入了活力。公司在收益率和需求方面的期望对全球经济形势非常敏感。在全球经济低迷时期，他们会迅速削减投资项目。因此，与我们三个月前预测的相反，我们的基本判断仍然是今年下半年增长将再次提速，风险可能会降低。所以情况仍然是，我们连续第三次调高2007年GDP预期。
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